HavenSphere Report August 2025 | MagicDust Partners

Cut-off date for sources: 20 August 2025 (Europe/London). Methodology unchanged from the April 2025 White Paper; MHIDS updated to include regional extensions, ESG/climate as a minor modifier, and behavioural/flows data.

1. Executive Summary

This full MHI run recalculates scores for all Safe Haven Assets using refreshed MHIDS inputs. Key directional shifts since April: (i) UK Gilts move higher on improved policy trajectory and relative value; (ii) U.S. Treasuries ease slightly on comparative basis; (iii) UAE prime residential strengthens on evidence of deepening market maturity; (iv) defensive equity sectors gain modestly for liability-matching allocators.

2. Macro & Policy Backdrop (August 2025)

Bank of England reduced Bank Rate to 4.0% on 7 August 2025 (5–4 vote), with the August MPR confirming continued disinflation and a cautious easing path.
UK GDP grew 0.3% QoQ in Q2 2025; services and construction positive, production softer.
Abu Dhabi real estate H1 2025 transactions rose 39% YoY to AED 51.72bn, volumes +12%, signalling durable depth; Dubai office occupancy around 92% with limited new supply.
Oman added to the MHI watchlist as an emerging safe-haven candidate; flows and policy reform remain under observation.

3. August 2025 MHI Scores Matrix (by Investor Type)

Safe Haven Asset	Institutional	Family Office	HNW Individuals	Sovereign Wealth Funds	Pension Funds
Defensive Equity Sectors	84	80	81	83	84
Private Equity Secondaries	70	73	75	71	70
KSA Real Estate	74	75	77	76	75
UAE Prime Residential Real Estate	85	92	93	87	84
Singaporean Real Estate	81	83	85	82	81
Paris Real Estate	79	80	82	79	78
New York Real Estate	78	80	82	79	78
Tokyo Real Estate	82	84	86	84	83
Prime Central London Real Estate	80	85	88	83	82
Swiss Franc	89	90	90	90	89
Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs)	87	85	84	86	87
UK Gilts	88	86	85	86	88
Swiss Government Bonds	92	89	88	91	91
German Government Bonds (Bunds)	90	88	87	89	90
U.S. Treasuries	87	85	84	86	88
Gold	92	90	91	89	88

Full per-criterion (11 SHCs) heatmap and the April→August deltas are provided in the accompanying Excel workbook.

4. Observations & Rationale

UK Gilts (+2 to +3): Relative value improved post-BoE cut; policy credibility and disinflation support capital preservation for Institutions and Pensions.
U.S. Treasuries (−1): Remain core, but relative case vs Gilts softened on a multi-asset basis.
UAE Prime Residential (+1 to +2 for FO/HNW; +1 for SWF): Abu Dhabi H1 depth and Dubai’s tight office market underpin liquidity and stickiness.
Defensive Equity Sectors (+1 for Institutions, SWF, Pensions): Rotation into defensives as growth cools.
CHF: Stable; marginal headwind for carry-sensitive HNW profiles.

5. Methodology & MHIDS

Methodology is unchanged from April 2025. The MHIDS has been expanded to include: (i) GCC regional extension (Oman/Qatar official stats and prime market reports), (ii) ESG/Climate resilience as a 5–10% governance modifier across selected SHCs, and (iii) behavioural/flows data (EPFR, IIF, BIS, IMF CPIS).

Refer to the separate 'MHIDS Appendix — August 2025' for full source listings.

6. Disclosures

The MHI is an informational framework and does not constitute investment advice. Scores reflect a synthesis of public and proprietary sources, and may change without notice as underlying data is updated.

HavenSphere® Index (MHI) Report
August 2025

Appendix: MagicDust HavenSphere® Index Data Sources (MHIDS)

The MHIDS encompasses a diverse array of data sources, each selected for their relevance, reliability, and alignment with our SHC and SHA. These sources are subject to continuous evaluation and refinement to ensure the MHI remains a robust and responsive tool.

U.S. Census Bureau Economic Indicators – Provides comprehensive data on various aspects of the U.S. economy, including construction, housing, international trade, retail trade, wholesale trade, services, and manufacturing.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) – Offers data on U.S. economic performance, including GDP, personal income, and international transactions.
Department of Commerce Economic Indicators – Delivers a suite of economic indicators produced from various censuses and surveys, serving as foundational data for GDP and other critical economic measures.
Advance Economic Indicators - U.S. Census Bureau – Provides advance statistics for U.S. international trade in goods, domestic retail inventories, and domestic wholesale inventories.
Census Bureau Index of Economic Activity (IDEA) – Aggregates 15 primary economic data series from the Census Bureau, offering a single time series constructed as a weighted combination to assess economic activity.
U.S. Economic Census – A quinquennial measure of American business and the economy, providing vital information for government, business, and industry decision-making.
Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) – A longitudinal survey providing comprehensive information on income dynamics, employment, household composition, and participation in government programs, essential for understanding economic well-being and behavioural responses.
Center for Economic Studies (CES) – U.S. Census Bureau – Conducts research to improve measures of the U.S. economy and population, developing innovative data products that enhance the understanding of economic trends and inform policy decisions.
Office for National Statistics (ONS) – UK Economic Indicators – Provides comprehensive data on the UK economy, including GDP, inflation, employment, and trade statistics, offering insights into economic performance and trends.
ONS – UK Housing Market Statistics – Includes data on house prices, rental trends, and housing affordability across the UK, crucial for assessing the real estate market's stability and investment potential.
HM Land Registry – UK House Price Index – Offers detailed information on property price trends, enabling analysis of market movements and regional variations, vital for evaluating real estate investments.
Bank of England – Monetary Policy Reports – Provides insights into the UK's monetary policy decisions, interest rate changes, and economic forecasts, informing assessments of financial stability and investment climate.
Knight Frank MENA Real Estate Reports – Offers in-depth analyses of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) real estate markets, including data on market growth, key transactions, and forecasts, essential for evaluating regional property investments.
Knight Frank Dubai Residential Market Review – A quarterly review highlighting key trends and performance metrics of Dubai's residential real estate market, offering insights into market dynamics and investment opportunities.
Knight Frank Saudi Arabia Report – A biennial publication providing comprehensive analysis of Saudi Arabia's residential real estate market, including trends, pricing, and investment prospects.
Knight Frank Wealth Report – An annual report offering insights into global wealth distribution, prime property markets, and investment opportunities across various asset classes, aiding in the assessment of high-net-worth investment trends.
CBRE MENA Market Reports – Provides detailed analyses of the MENA region's real estate markets, including market trends, investment opportunities, and economic indicators, supporting informed investment decisions.
JLL MENA Market Reports – Offers comprehensive insights into the real estate markets across the Middle East and North Africa, covering sectors such as residential, commercial, and industrial properties, essential for evaluating regional investment opportunities.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Regional Economic Outlooks – Delivers in-depth analyses of economic developments and prospects in various regions, aiding in the assessment of macroeconomic stability and investment climates.
World Bank Global Economic Prospects – Provides forecasts and analyses of global economic trends, including data on emerging markets and developing economies, informing assessments of global economic health.
Bloomberg Financial Data Services – Offers real-time financial data, news, and analytics, essential for monitoring market movements and asset performance, supporting timely investment decisions.
Refinitiv Data Services – Supplies comprehensive financial data and analytics, supporting informed investment decisions across asset classes, including equities, fixed income, and commodities.
Eurasia Group Geopolitical Risk Assessments – Provides expert analyses of geopolitical developments and their potential impacts on global markets, crucial for understanding political risk factors affecting investments.
Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Reports – Offers insights into international affairs and policy analyses relevant to global economic stability, aiding in the assessment of geopolitical risks.
Preqin Alternative Assets Data – Delivers data and insights on alternative assets, including private equity, hedge funds, and real estate investments, supporting evaluations of non-traditional investment opportunities.
Hedge Fund Research (HFR) Reports – Provides comprehensive data on hedge fund performance, strategies, and market trends, informing assessments of alternative investment vehicles.
Cryptocurrency Market Analysis Platforms (e.g., CoinMarketCap, Glassnode) – Offer data and analytics on cryptocurrency markets, aiding in the assessment of digital assets' volatility and market behaviour, relevant for evaluating emerging asset classes.
Social Media Sentiment Analysis Tools (e.g., Brandwatch, Talkwalker) – Analyse social media trends and sentiments, providing insights into investor behaviour and market perceptions, supporting assessments of market sentiment.
Think Tank Policy Reports (e.g., Brookings Institution, Chatham House) – Deliver analyses on policy developments and their implications for economic and market stability, informing evaluations of regulatory and policy risks.

This comprehensive and dynamically maintained MHIDS framework ensures that the MagicDust HavenSphere® Index (MHI) remains a robust and responsive tool for evaluating Safe Haven Asset Classes (SHA) against our defined Safe Haven Criteria (SHC).