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HavenSphere® Index — August 2025 Pulse

  • Writer: Ian Plunkett
    Ian Plunkett
  • Apr 1
  • 2 min read

Updated: Aug 27


Cut-off date: 20 August 2025 | Methodology unchanged; MHIDS updated (regional extension, ESG/climate modifier, behavioural/flows data).

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1. Overview

The August 2025 Pulse highlights the directional shifts in safe-haven asset performance since the April full Index run. While the broader hierarchy of safe havens remains intact, relative movements reflect monetary easing in the UK, continued resilience in UAE real estate, and capital flows dynamics shaping allocator behaviour.


2. Key Movements

  • UK Gilts (+2 to +3): The Bank of England’s rate cut to 4.0% and stronger fiscal positioning lifted Gilts across institutional and pension allocator profiles.

  • UAE Prime Residential (+1 to +2): Abu Dhabi’s secondary market surge (+53% in Q1; +39% value in H1) confirmed depth and maturity; Dubai office occupancy at 92% reinforced liquidity credentials.

  • U.S. Treasuries (−1): Treasuries remain core, but their premium over Gilts narrowed; foreign allocation waned.

  • Defensive Equities (+1): Modest rotation by liability-matching allocators into defensives as global growth cools.

  • Swiss Franc (−1 HNW): Stable overall, but SNB policy suppresses returns for carry-sensitive investors.

  • Gold: Stable at highs (~$3,300/oz), reinforcing its anchor role.

  • Swiss and German Bonds: Stability maintained; no significant moves.


3. Stable Anchors

Gold, Swiss government bonds, and Bunds continue to provide consistent capital preservation, volatility resilience, and global portability. Their relative positions are unchanged, confirming their enduring role as benchmark safe havens.

4. Emerging Contenders

Oman enters the watchlist as a rising contender, underpinned by Vision 2040 reforms, freehold ITC zones, and rental yields of 5–8%. Qatar is monitored for allocator flows but data coverage remains limited. These candidates are not yet fully scored SHAs, but scenario overlays will track their progress.


5. Pulse Delta Summary

April → August 2025 net changes (selected allocators):

  • UK Gilts: +3 (Institutions), +2 (Family Offices, SWF, Pensions)

  • UAE Prime Resi: +2 (Family Offices), +1 (HNW, SWF)

  • U.S. Treasuries: −1 (across all profiles)

  • Defensive Equities: +1 (Institutions, SWF, Pensions)

  • Swiss Franc: −1 (HNW only)


6. Conclusion

The August Pulse demonstrates that the HavenSphere® Index remains adaptive and forward-looking. Gilts’ resurgence, UAE market maturity, and nuanced allocator flows reaffirm the Index’s role in distinguishing where safety-seeking capital should stay, not just where it moves. The next full recalibration is scheduled for November 2025, with interim Pulse updates as required.



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